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Mexico Infrastructure Report Q2 2015

Mexico Infrastructure Report Q2 2015

BMI View: The recovery in Mexico's construction sector will continue in 2015, driven primarily byresidential construction. Growing headwinds from lower oil prices - through direct sector investment andcuts to fiscal spending have caused us to downgrade the pace of this recovery in 2015 from 4.1% to 3.1%.

We expect a continued recovery in real net output growth for the construction sector in 2015. Growth of1.95% was recorded for 2014, in line with our expectation of 1.99% growth for the year, our expectation ofgrowth to recover from H214 was also correct, with positive growth having returned from Q314. Our viewthat this recovery will continue, is supported by higher frequency indicators. Construction IndustrialProduction entered positive territory in June 2014 and has gathered pace over the latter six months of theyear, expanding 6.8% y-o-y in December 2014. Despite an expectation of construction sector growth, wedowngraded the pace of this to 3.05% for 2015 and 2.9% for 2016. The nascent industry recovery is lookingprecarious already, with the sharp drop in oil prices hitting growth drivers unexpectedly. In particular wesharply downgraded our outlook for Infrastructure sector growth and non-residential construction isexpected to take a hit from cuts to downstream energy investment. Over the next five years a strong take-upof the country's debut oil licensing rounds in H115 could provide upside, as well as investment off the backof power sector reform.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Infrastructure SWOT
Industry Forecast
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Mexico 2013-2018)
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Mexico 2019-2024)
Table: Mexico Transport Budget, Correct As Of September 2014*
Table: National Infrastructure Plan, Sector Breakdown
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Mexico 2013-2018)
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Mexico 2019-2024)
Table: Mexico - Previous Transport Budget, Correct As Of September 2014
Table: Mexico: Key Transport Projects
Energy And Utilities - Outlook And Overview
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Mexico 2013-2018)
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Mexico 2019-2024)
Table: Energy & Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Mexico 2013-2018)
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Mexico 2019-2024)
Table: Key Projects: Construction And Social Infrastructure
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Mexico - Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Latin America - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Company Financial Data
Company Profile
Cemex
Table: Cemex - 2013 And 2014 Financial Data, USDmn
ICA
Table: Empresas ICA Financial Data, MXNmn, Unless Otherwise Stated
Global Industry Overview
Industry Trend Analysis
Table: Multilaterals And Development Bank Infrastructure Support Programmes
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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