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Mexico Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Mexico Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Mexican politics will shift decisively to the left for the first time in decades, following the landslide presidential victory of leftist populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).

AMLO will likely increase the government's role in the Mexican economy, increasing spending on social programmes and infrastructure. However, we expect he will only rein in, not reverse, energy sector liberalisation and leave trade agreements intact.

Economic activity growth will accelerate in Mexico in 2018 and 2019, supported by US economic strength and increased public spending under the AMLO administration.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Accelerate In Mexico Despite Uncertainty Around AMLO
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Mexico's External Accounts Stable With NAFTA In Place
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Mexican Interest Rates On Hold Through End-2018
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Mexico Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsFiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
AMLO Spending Increases To Widen Deficit
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN SOURCES OF FEDERAL REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE
Currency Forecast
MXN: Modest Appreciation Likely As Sentiment Improves
TABLE: EXCHANGE RATE FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Mexican Economy To 2027
Key Reforms Positive For Long-Term Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
AMLO Victory A Watershed Moment For Mexico
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Corruption And Security Will Remain Key Concerns
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: MEXICO – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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