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Mexico Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017

Mexico Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017

BMI View: We expect to see a weaker Mexican consumer over the second half of 2017 on the back ofhigher inflation, tightening credit conditions, and growing uncertainty over future US-Mexico traderelations. We project that private consumption will slow to 2.5% y-o-y in 2017, down from 2.8% in 2016and 3.1% in 2015.

Latest Developments

We have upwardly revised our forecast for real GDP growth to 1.8% in 2017 (from 1.6% previously) andmaintain our 2018 forecast at 2.0% (see 'Quick View: Upside Risks To Growth As Tertiary Sector ProvesResilient', May 1). The services sector has been the major driver of growth since 2016 and we cannot ruleout that it continues to perform above our expectations.

We maintain our belief for the retail sector to slowdown over the second half of 2017, with high inflationeating into consumers' purchasing power and with interest rates for consumers still likely to head higherin the months ahead, subduing spending.

BMI Industry View
Consumer Outlook
Consumer & Retail SWOT
Industry Forecast
Consumer Spending
Total Household Spending
Table: Total Household Spending (Mexico 2015-2021)
Essential And Non-Essential Spending
Table: Essential and Non Essential Spending (Mexico 2015-2021)
Food, Drink And Tobacco
Table: Food and drinks (non-alcoholic, alcoholic and tobacco) spending (Mexico 2015-2021)
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Mexico 2015-2021)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Mexico 2015-2021)
Personal Care And Effects
Table: Personal Care and Effects Spending (Mexico 2015-2021)
Tourism Spending
Household Characteristics
Table: Household Income Data (Mexico 2014-2021)
Table: Mexico Labour Market Forecasts
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Mexico 2014-2021)
Market Overview
Retail Trends
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers
Household Goods
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers
Consumer Electronics
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
Department Stores
Table: Selected Department Stores
E-Commerce And Online Marketplaces
Table: Selected E-commerce Retailers
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
Table: Selected Pharmacies And Drug Store
Shopping Malls
Industry Forecast Methodology

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