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Mexico Agribusiness Q3 2019

Key View:

With the future of trade between theUS, Mexicoand Canadafar more clear than in previous updates, our view on theMexican agribusiness sector is looking increasingly positive. We have seen a number of positive revisions to our production andconsumption forecasts through to the end of our five-year forecast periodin 2023. We have revised up our forecasts for wheatproduction, corn production and consumption, pork production, and beef production and consumption. Our positivitytowards thelivestock sector is furthered by PresidentAndrés Manuel López Obrador'spledgeto make Mexico self-sufficientin beef, chickenandpork, among other agricultural products, posing upside risks to our long-term production forecasts.We expect domestic productionto rise modestly and at a faster rate than domestic consumption, which is being driven by income growth and a rising nationalappetite. With the sugar surplusincreasing, Mexico will need to increasingly look beyondtheUS - owingto its reducedshippingquota - to export its oversupply in 2019 and beyond. We are positive in our view of the coffee market,as the effects of the royarustfungus fade and healthy crop yields are bolstered as improving farming techniques become the norm. We believe thatMexico willremain reliant on dairy imports; however, the growth in demand may slow in the latter years of the forecast as healthy alternatives todairy fat are encouraged.On the demand side, rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver consumption-sidegrowth more broadly, but we hold to our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as awhole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar sub-sectors.We also see the successful re-negotiationof the North American


Key View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Livestock
Sugar
Coffee
Dairy
Grains
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Commodities Strategy: Turning More Neutral Amidst Trade Tensions Re-Escalation
Upstream Analysis
Americas Machinery Outlook
Americas GM Outlook - Trade Concerns And Regulatory Challenges Squeeze Sales
Americas Fertiliser Outlook: Short-Term Optimism, Long-Term Competitio
Downstream Analysis
Food
Regional Overview
Five Key Themes For The Americas Agribusiness
Competitive Landscape
Mexico Demographic Outlook
Agribusiness Methodology

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