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Mexico Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Mexico Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We have made some minor forecast adjustments in our Q2 2016 Mexican agribusiness reportupdate. We retain our positive outlook for various segments of the industry till then end of our forecastperiod in 2020. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years but we foresee positivetrends in domestic production and consumption of the dairy sector, livestock sector and coffee segment. Wehold a subdued forecast for the grains market due to corn production volatility. Rising per capitadisposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion thatcompetitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains,livestock and sugar subsectors.

Key Forecasts

We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 7.8% in 2015/16 to reach 23.5mn tonnes.Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Cornconsumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates of under 1% to 2020.

We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork productionoutpacing poultry and beef and veal. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork whereashigher cost will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.

The Mexican dairy sector will expand in terms of production in 2016 with domestic cheese demand andsupply outpacing growth in liquid milk and butter sectors.

Rising per capital incomes and discretionary spending powers will boost food consumption in 2016 andbeyond, over the course of our forecast period.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Livestock Outlook
Table: Mexico Livestock Production, Consumption & Trade Outlook
Table: Risks to Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013
2020)
Sugar Outlook
Table: Mexico
Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks to Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013
2020)
Coffee Outlook
Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks to Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013
2019)
Dairy Outlook
Table: Mexico Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks to Outlook
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013
2020)
Grains Outlook
Table: Mexico Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks to Outlook
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013
2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities
Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Americas GM Outlook
Americas Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Companies
Sales Forecasts By Region (Companybased estimates)
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Confectionery
Prepared/Canned Food
Meat
Fish
Oils And Fats
Pasta
Dairy
Baked Products
Regional Overview
Table: TPP
Main Winners And Losers For Agriculture
Competitive Landscape
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990
2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990
2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990
2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
SectorSpecific Methodology

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