Malaysia Shipping Report Q3 2015
BMI View: Malaysia's main ports will see volume growth broadly in a 2-4% range this year, laggingslightly behind the growth of the wider economy. Port Klang and Port Tanjung Pelepas continue to benefitfrom expansion projects and developments that have been completed over the last two years.
We are maintaining our existing outlook for the Malaysian economy, which sees GDP growth deceleratingfrom 5.8% in 2014 to 4.2% in 2015. This comes on the back of various factors. Data still coming throughfrom last year shows exports performed particularly strongly, lifted by good demand for electronics andsemi conductors. But going into H214, there were signs of weakening consumer demand caused by thecombination of monetary tightening and high levels of household debt. Coming into 2015, the fall ininternational oil prices is an important external factor. We believe the net effect is marginally negative, asthey lead to lower oil sector production and investment, currency depreciation, and lower governmentspending. But there are positive effects as well, with the non-oil economy making some savings, and non-oilexporters benefitting from a more competitive exchange rate. Looking to the long term, we expect growth toaverage 4.2% in 2016-2024. While this is below the 5.1% rate seen over the past decade, this largelyreflects lower growth in the working age population, while labour productivity growth is set to rise. TheMalaysian economy is proceeding along a process of economic rebalancing, moving away from exportdrivengrowth and more towards domestic private consumption.
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