Malaysia Retail Report Q4 2015

Malaysia Retail Report Q4 2015

BMI View: A series of economic changes are set to impact the Malaysian retail sector negatively in 2015.Decline of oil price made the government to introduce Goods and Services Tax in April in attempts todiversify its sources of income. Fuel subsidies have been removed, ringgit is on a decline against US dollarand consumers' budgets are becoming tighter. As a result, growth in the Malaysian retail sector will slowdown in 2015-2016.

As a highly oil & gas dependent country, Malaysia has been hit by the changing oil price landscape in 2015.Fossil fuels directly contribute to 30% of all government revenues in Malaysia and a 40% drop in oil pricein 12 months requires the country to rebalance its budget. First, fuel subsidies were removed allowing petrolprice to rise. Consumers and businesses are facing higher transportation costs, and due to inelastic nature ofdemand for petrol, Malaysians will see their disposable incomes decline in 2015-2016. Second, thegovernment moved further in rebalancing the budget and introduced a Goods and Services Tax (GST) inApril 2015. Most of the retail products qualify for the new 6% tax which is in turn squeezing profit marginsfor retailers and decreasing the purchasing power of Malaysian wages. As a result, consumer sentiment fellto a six-year low in July 2015, according to the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. The holy monthof Ramadan, which typically generates large volumes of sales as stores launch promotions in order to attractcustomers, was disappointing for retailers, some of whom faced 20% declines in sales compared with lastyear. Consequently, we forecast that total household spending will have fallen by 5.2% in US dollar termsby the end of 2015.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Personal Care
Table: Personal Care Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Malaysia 2010-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Asia Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia - Retail Risk/Reward Index
Malaysia Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Retail Formats
Competitive Landscape
Department Store Groups
Consumer Electronics
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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