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Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Malaysia's long-term crude oil production will be hit as investment in deepwater explorationand production is curtailed amid low oil prices. A more competitive Asian LNG market will reduce foreigngas demand in the short term.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

We forecast Malaysia's crude oil production to remain on a downtrend over 2016 to 2025 as weak oilprices limit the attractiveness of boosting output. Furthermore, we do not expect new final investmentdecisions in deepwater and marginal projects in the next several years given their high breakeven cost.

We have further downgraded our oil production forecast this quarter on the back of continuously low oilprices, our downwards oil price forecast revision for the coming years and Petronas' large spending cutsfor the coming four years. We see Malaysia's oil production levels declining from an estimated 645,900b/d in 2015 to 458,600b/d in 2025

We have upgraded our refining forecast this quarter based on the selling of Shell's Port Dickson refineryto Chinese private refiner Shandong Hengyuan Petrocheminal. The new buyer has announced plans toupgrade the refinery to meet new Euro IV and V fuel specifications. We are therefore now including thisrefinery within the entire forecast period.

We expect refined fuels production to remain relatively stable over the coming years, rising in 2020 withthe start of the RAPID refinery, boosting refined products production from 410,700b/d in 2019 to593,200b/d by 2022.

Malaysia's oil consumption will grow at a slower rate over the next decade as a result of weakeningeconomic growth and falling energy intensity weighing on demand. The consumption mix will remaindominated by diesel and gasoline over our forecast period.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2014-2020)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Major Discoveries In Malaysia Since 2011
Table: Blocks Offered In The Petronas Licensing Round 2014
Upstream Projects
Table: Malaysia Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Risk Sharing Contracts Awarded
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Asia - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Malaysia Risk/Reward Index
Malaysia Upstream Index - Overview
Malaysia Upstream Index - Rewards
Malaysia Upstream Index - Risks
Malaysia Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Malaysia
Existing Refineries
Planned Refineries
Proposed Refineries
Oil Storage Facilities
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals
LNG Import Terminals
Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Malaysia Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
Table: Malaysia - Upstream Tax Regime
Licensing Regime
Table: Malaysia - Contracts and Licensing Regime
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players - Malaysian Energy Sector
Company Profile
ConocoPhillips
ExxonMobil
Murphy Oil
Petronas
Shell
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Industry Trend Analysis
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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