Malaysia Freight Transport Report Q1 2016
BMI View: We expect strong growth for trade in Malaysia over the coming years, boosting freight volumesfor all modes. Rail will experience the biggest increase, catering for construction material transfers whileroad freight will dominate in terms of tonnage with industries utilising the country's extensive road networkfor their cargo transfer needs. Air freight will experience slow, steady growth limited by functional and costconstraints. Rising consumer demand in the growing economy is also contributing to our positive outlookwith the recently agreed Trans-Pacific Partnership presenting further growth potential over the medium tolong term.
Malaysia has enjoyed economic growth since 2010 and we forecast growth to continue over the mediumterm, although at slightly lower rates than previous years. For the years 2010-2014 real GDP average isestimated to have reached 5.7%, while we anticipate an average of 4.6% for years 2015-2019. Freight,particularly for road, benefits from increasing consumer demand driven by relatively low unemploymentrates (4.1% average 2015-2019) and inflation rates remaining lower than average wage growth. Malaysia oilproduction has declined significantly over the past decade however it remains a net exporter of oil andnatural gas and so current low oil prices are having an effect on government revenues. With domesticdemand for energy increasing and the country's oil reserves decreasing we forecast that by 2017 Malaysiawill become a net importer of oil.
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