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Macedonia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Macedonia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Macedonia's government will remain in a vulnerable position, counting only on a thin parliamentary majority, with risks to its stability stemming from ethnic issues and an obstructive opposition.

Commitment to meeting the EU accession criteria will remain in place, although lingering ethnic and geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic challenges will continue to provide headwinds to achieving full membership in the medium term.

EU convergence efforts will keep Macedonian fiscal policy on a sustainable path. This, coupled with the currency peg to the euro will allow the country's sovereign risk profile to remain broadly stable over our forecast period.

Key Risks



Ethnic tensions remain a prominent risk to domestic and foreign politics.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Tailwinds To Economic Growth Gaining Momentum In Macedonia
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2015)
10-Year Forecast
The Macedonian Economy To 2027
Robust Growth Will Moderate Over The Next 10 Years
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Macedonia Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Hindrances To Macedonia's EU Membership Go Beyond Referendum
Long-Term Political Outlook
Unresolved Name Dispute And Ethnic Tensions Pose Long-Term Risks
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: MACEDONIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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