Macedonia Country Risk Report Q3 2018
Macedonia's government will remain in a vulnerable position, count-ing only on a thin parliamentary majority, with risks to its stability stemming from ethnic issues and an obstructive opposition.
Commitment to meeting the EU accession criteria will remain in place, although lingering ethnic and geopolitical tensions and macroeco-nomic challenges will continue to provide headwinds to achieving full membership in the medium term.
EU convergence efforts will keep Macedonian fiscal policy on a sustainable path. This, coupled with the currency peg to the euro will allow the country's sovereign risk profile to remain broadly stable over our forecast period.
Executive Summary Core Views Key Risks Chapter 1: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Index Economic Growth Outlook Broader Political Stability To Support RecoveryGDP By Expenditure Outlook TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS Outlook On External Position TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2015TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2015 Structural Fiscal Position TABLE: FISCAL POLICY TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2015)Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast The Macedonian Economy To 2027 Robust Growth Will Moderate Over The Next 10 Years TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS Chapter 3: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Index Domestic PoliticsName Settlement Risks Delays Long-Term Political Outlook Unresolved Name Dispute And Ethnic Tensions Pose Long-Term Risks Chapter 4: Operational Risk Developed StatesTABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK INDEX TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK INDEXTABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK INDEX TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK INDEX Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: MACEDONIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS