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MENA Mining Report Q2 2015


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

MENA Mining Report Q2 2015

BMI View: We expect to see strong growth in the mining sector of the Middle East and North Africa overthe coming years. With low base effects, governmental will to increase non-oil revenues and significantresources it appears the region is set for strong growth. We highlight Turkey and Northern Iraq as keyareas for growth. That said, the region will remain peripheral in the global mining sector as it continues tounderperform due to political instability in much of the region.The key issue in the Middle East's mining sector presently is Iran's ongoing negotiations with Westernpowers. Our core scenario is for negotiations to continue and for limited sanctions relief to be rolled overuntil 2016. This will benefit the mining sector as it is one of the beneficiaries of an easing of sanctions. Onthe upside, if negotiations are successful (which we currently give a likelihood of 25%), it will be a gamechanger for the country's beleaguered mining industry and could make the country a key centre of globalmining investment in the coming years.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Iran: Tentative Signs Of An Opening For Mining Sector
Table: Iran - Mineral Reserves
Saudi Arabia: Gold No Threat To Black Gold
Growth To Slow Substantially As Mines Close
Table: Ma'aden - Current Mines Details
Lower Prices Present Small Risk
Table: Saudi Arabia - Gold Output
Egypt: Improving Political Stability To Bolster Mining Investment
Table: Egypt - Select Mining Projects
Table: Egypt - Gold Production
Turkey: Growth Story Despite Risks
Coal Boom
Gold Rush
Solid Base Metal Growth
Regulatory Overhaul Provides Tailwinds
Labour Unrest Due To Poor Safety Constitutes A Downside Risk
Table: Turkey: Mine Production Historic Data & Forecasts
Oman: Mining To Gather Momentum On Diversification
Table: Oman - Metals & Mining Output Historical Data
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: MENA - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Non-Ferrous Metals
Aluminium: Abating Tightness To Cap Prices
Copper: Continued Weakness Ahead
Lead: Prices To Firm As Year Progresses
Nickel: Prices Will Only Rise Gradually
Tin: Waiting On A Deficit
Zinc: Modest Price Growth On Tighter Supply But Looser Demand
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: MENA - Largest Listed Mining & Metals Companies
Company Profile
Kasbah Resources
Table: Kasbah Resources - Financial Performance
Maya Gold & Silver
Table: Maya Gold & Silver - Financial Results
Regional Overview
MENA Overview
Saudi & Iran: Government Estimates Overblown
Table: Largest Mining Projects In MENA
Egypt: Political Risks To Ease
Iraq: A Bright Spot In The Region
Morocco: Potential For Tin Mining
Global Industry Overview
Global Overview
2. Stronger US Dollar To Persist
3. Iron Ore Market To Consolidate
5. Standouts In 2015
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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