Lithuania Freight Transport Report 2016
BMI View: The slowdown in Lithuania's economic growth is forecast to come to an end with accelerated economic growth in 2016 and 2017 especially. The Ukrainian crisis and consequently softer external demand has been hurting the Lithuanian economy, impacting all freight transport sectors. Trade wars between the EU and Russia have slowed growth numbers for Lithuania's imports and exports, but with improving trade conditions and domestic demand increasing, we have a more positive outlook for Lithuania over the next few years.
As the Ukrainian crisis lingers, external demand from Lithuania's main trade partners has diminished, slowing down the economy. However, with growing domestic demand, Lithuania's economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2016 reaching its growth peak in 2017 before rates even out again. In 2016, we forecast a GDP growth rate of 3.1%, up from 2.0 estimated in 2015. The pace of growth is still expected to be leisurely, slowed down by loss of exports markets in Russia and low oil prices that have hurt the country's important refined oil export. For the rest of the forecast period, we expect an average annual growth rate of 3.5%.
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