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Libya Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Libya Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Progress on peace negotiations has been slow and major barriers remain to formation of theLibyan unity government. We expect the government to take office in 2016, returning a significant trancheof shut-in production. However, the security environment will remain fragile, while chronicunderinvestment, substantial damage to infrastructure and a lack of maintenance works will all drag on therecovery. The downstream sector also faces major headwinds, due to the ageing and poorly utilisedinfrastructure, recurrent feedstock constraints and a severe lack of investment.Key Trends & Latest Updates

Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside riskto our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of theconflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over thecoming years.

Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instabilityand unattractive fiscal and licensing terms.

Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic tocontinue into 2016. We forecast an 8.1% y-o-y decline in crude and condensates output, averaging387,000b/d.

Gas output has been somewhat less affected than crude and we estimate that in 2016 gas production willremain broadly stagnant, at 12.3bcm.

Refineries will operate below capacity, due to both interruptions in the oil supply and the targeting of oiland gas infrastructure by opponents to the central governments.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2014-2020)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends: Crude Oil
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Libya - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Rewards
Upstream Risks
Downstream
Market Overview
Libya Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Licensing Regime
Table: Model EPSA Main Licensing Terms
Fiscal Regime
Table: Model EPSA Main Fiscal Terms
Licensing Rounds
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Libya Oil Refineries
Oil Terminals
Table: Libya Oil Terminals
LNG Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
Oil & Gas Pipelines
Table: Libya Main Export Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Company Profile
ConocoPhillips
Eni North Africa
Marathon Oil
National Oil Corporation (NOC)
OMV Of Libya
Repsol Libya
Total Libya
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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