Libya Infrastructure Report 2016
BMI View: Libya's construction sector is forecast to grow at 12% y-o-y in 2016 and average 4.9% over our10-year forecast period. A degree of stability has been restored to the industry following a severecontraction in 2015, though investors will remain cautious in entering or re-entering the market owing topolitical instability and widespread violence. Upgrades to transport infrastructure and construction ofwater utility plants will drive growth over the short term.
Key Forecasts And Themes:
We continue to forecast 12% real growth over 2016, 5.6% over the next five years and 4.9% over our full10-year forecast period. The spike in growth in 2016 is owing to base effects, following the contraction ofthe industry by 25% in 2015.
The government will struggle to fund key infrastructure development owing to a widening fiscal deficitand decline in revenues from oil. Foreign investors continue to be deterred by political instability and thehigh security risk across the country.
Growth will stem mainly from activity in the transport and energy and utilities sectors. The outlook forthe residential and non-residential sectors remains grim.
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