Libya Country Risk Report Q4 2019
Front lines in the ongoing battle for Tripoli are likely to remain largely static in the near term. Scope for progress in political negotiations between the Libyan National Army and militias linked to the Government of National Accord also seems limited, as both sides appear to be betting on an eventual military victory in the capital.
At present, we retain our forecast for Libyan real GDP growth to come in at 4.6% in 2019 and 5.3% in 2020, supported by continued, albeit slowing, gains in oil output. That said, fighting in Tripoli could eventually spill over into oil-producing regions, causing output disruptions that adversely impact the country's growth, as well as fiscal and financial stability.
Libya's combination of oil wealth, tribal divisions, weak-to-non-existent institutions and security vacuum portend to significant instability and potential for a return to full-blown civil war over the coming years.
A failure to create sufficient employment opportunities within the non-oil economy poses a clear risk to social stability given Libya's burgeoning youth population.
Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.Download eBook