Market Research Logo

Libya Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Libya Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Front lines in the ongoing battle for Tripoli are likely to remain largely static in the near term. Scope for progress in political negotiations between the Libyan National Army and militias linked to the Government of National Accord also seems limited, as both sides appear to be betting on an eventual military victory in the capital.

At present, we retain our forecast for Libyan real GDP growth to come in at 4.6% in 2019 and 5.3% in 2020, supported by continued, albeit slowing, gains in oil output. That said, fighting in Tripoli could eventually spill over into oil-producing regions, causing output disruptions that adversely impact the country's growth, as well as fiscal and financial stability.

Key Risks

Libya's combination of oil wealth, tribal divisions, weak-to-non-existent institutions and security vacuum portend to significant instability and potential for a return to full-blown civil war over the coming years.

A failure to create sufficient employment opportunities within the non-oil economy poses a clear risk to social stability given Libya's burgeoning youth population.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Conflict Escalation In Tripoli Poses Downside Risks To Libyan Oil Output
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Libya's Fiscal Deficit To Widen In 2019-2020
10-Year Forecast
The Libyan Economy To 2028
Robust Long-Term Growth Outlook For Libya Masks Structural Weaknesses, Political Risks
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Protracted Stalemate Increasingly Likely In Battle For Libya's Tripoli
Long-Term Political Outlook
Fragile Federalised State To Emerge
Global Macro Outlook
Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: LIBYA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report