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Lebanon and Syria Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Lebanon and Syria Country Risk Report Q4 2019

The government's limited progress to date in reducing its budget deficit appears to be weighing on investor confidence towards Lebanon, limiting fundinginflows and raising debt servicing costs.We continue to expect that the government will implement selected fiscal consolidation measures in the quarters ahead, helping to shore up confidence tosome extent as the budget deficit narrows from 10.7% of GDP in 2018 to a forecast 9.6% in 2019 and 8.6% in 2020.That said, risks to Lebanon's current financing model are evident, and should political paralysis continue to obstruct reforms, then we cannot rule out the countryexperiencing severe macroeconomic instability in the years ahead.


Brief Methodology
Lebanon – Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Lebanon – Country Risk Summary
Lebanon – SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Lebanon – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Fiscal Austerity, Weak Investor Confidence To Cap Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Stubbornly Wide Trade Deficit To Add To Lebanon's Already Large External Financing Needs
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Pressure Rising On Lebanon's Government To Speed Up Fiscal Consolidation
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES, 2017
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Lebanon – 10-Year Forecast
The Lebanese Economy To 2028
Slow Growth Amid Persistent Reluctance To Implement Reforms
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Lebanon & Syria Country Risk Q4 2019ContentsLebanon – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Israel-Hizbullah Tensions Flaring, But Further Escalation Unlikely For Now
Long-Term Political Outlook
Muddling Through A Plethora Of Challenges
Syria – Executive Summary
Core Views
Syria – Country Risk Summary
Syria – SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Syria – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Syrian Growth To Head Higher On Improved Security, But Recovery Will Take Time
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Syria – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Pro-Syrian Regime Forces' Offensive On Idlib To Push Opposition Forces North
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Political Environment To Remain Highly Challenging
Global Macro Outlook
Potential Policy Missteps Pose The Largest Risk To Global Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: LEBANON – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: SYRIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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