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Lebanon and Syria Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Lebanon and Syria Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Following the May 6 legislative elections and the re-appointment of Saad Hariri to the premiership, we expect a new government to be formed over the coming weeks, which will result in broad policy continuity. However, political fragmentation means that policy-making will remain challenging, limiting the scope for structural reforms.

Owing to the weak business environment and other structural obstacles, growth rates will remain low over the coming years, and will be insufficient to make a tangible difference to Lebanese living standards.

The Lebanese government will continue to post high deficits over the coming years, as political fragmentation limits the scope for much-needed structural reforms. This will, in turn, result in continued debt accumulation.


BMI Index
BMI Risk Index – Lebanon
BMI Risk Index – Syria
Executive Summary – Lebanon
Core Views
Key Risk
Chapter 1.1: Economic Outlook – Lebanon
SWOT Analysis
Economic Growth Outlook
Gradual Recovery On Improving Business Sentiment And Infrastructure Plan
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Debt Accumulation To Continue Amid Persistent Wide Deficits
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES, 2017
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Inflation To Peak In 2018
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Chapter 1.2: 10-Year Forecast – Lebanon
The Lebanese Economy To 2027
Slow Growth As Willingness For Reform Lags
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 1.3: Political Outlook – Lebanon
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
No Post-Election Vacuum Ahead, But Risks Still Abound
Long-Term Political Outlook
Muddling Through A Plethora Of Challenges
Executive Summary – Syria
Core Views
Key Risk
Chapter 2.1: Economic Outlook – Syria
SWOT Analysis
Economic Growth Outlook
Economy Stabilising, But Reconstruction Will Take Time
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Chapter 2.2: 10-Year Forecast – Syria
The Syrian Economy To 2027
Long-Term Damage Of Protracted Civil War
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 2.3: Political Outlook – Syria
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
Russian Move To Diplomatic Role Positive, But Settlement Still Out Of Reach
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
TABLE: KEY FOREIGN ACTORS IN SYRIA – OBJECTIVES AND POTENTIAL FLASHPOINTS
Long-Term Political Outlook
Assad Regime To Survive, But Post-War Era To Remain Unstable
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
TABLE: LEBANON – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: SYRIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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