Lebanon and Syria Country Risk Report Q3 2018
Following the May 6 legislative elections and the re-appointment of Saad Hariri to the premiership, we expect a new government to be formed over the coming weeks, which will result in broad policy continuity. However, political fragmentation means that policy-making will remain challenging, limiting the scope for structural reforms.
Owing to the weak business environment and other structural obstacles, growth rates will remain low over the coming years, and will be insufficient to make a tangible difference to Lebanese living standards.
The Lebanese government will continue to post high deficits over the coming years, as political fragmentation limits the scope for much-needed structural reforms. This will, in turn, result in continued debt accumulation.
BMI IndexBMI Risk Index – Lebanon BMI Risk Index – Syria Executive Summary – LebanonCore Views Key Risk Chapter 1.1: Economic Outlook – Lebanon SWOT Analysis Economic Growth Outlook Gradual Recovery On Improving Business Sentiment And Infrastructure Plan GDP By Expenditure Outlook TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook Debt Accumulation To Continue Amid Persistent Wide Deficits Structural Fiscal Position TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES, 2017 TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS Outlook On External Position TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS Monetary Policy Inflation To Peak In 2018Monetary Policy Framework TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTSChapter 1.2: 10-Year Forecast – Lebanon The Lebanese Economy To 2027 Slow Growth As Willingness For Reform Lags TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS Chapter 1.3: Political Outlook – Lebanon SWOT Analysis Domestic PoliticsNo Post-Election Vacuum Ahead, But Risks Still Abound Long-Term Political Outlook Muddling Through A Plethora Of Challenges Executive Summary – SyriaCore Views Key Risk Chapter 2.1: Economic Outlook – Syria SWOT Analysis Economic Growth Outlook Economy Stabilising, But Reconstruction Will Take Time GDP By Expenditure Outlook TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS Chapter 2.2: 10-Year Forecast – Syria The Syrian Economy To 2027Long-Term Damage Of Protracted Civil War TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS Chapter 2.3: Political Outlook – SyriaSWOT Analysis Domestic PoliticsRussian Move To Diplomatic Role Positive, But Settlement Still Out Of Reach TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW TABLE: KEY FOREIGN ACTORS IN SYRIA – OBJECTIVES AND POTENTIAL FLASHPOINTS Long-Term Political Outlook Assad Regime To Survive, But Post-War Era To Remain Unstable Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y TABLE: LEBANON – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS TABLE: SYRIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS