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Lebanon Autos Report Q2 2016

BMI Industry View
Key Views
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2014-2020)
Latest Developments
Table: Latest Developments
Structural Trends
Passenger Cars
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2014-2020)
Latest Developments
Table: Latest Developments
Key Players
Table: Lebanon - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers, 2015
Commercial Vehicles
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2014-2020)
Latest Developments
Industry Risk/Reward Index
GCC Stability Offsets Sales Downgrades
Long-Term Potential Comes With Risk
Iran The Most Attractive Outlier
Company Profile
Bassoul Heneine (Renault)
Regional Overview
Table: Middle East And North African Autos Production Investments
Iran Already Drawing A Crowd...
North African Hub Expanding
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lebanon 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lebanon 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Lebanon 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Lebanon 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lebanon 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecasts
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators

Lebanon Autos Report Q2 2016

BMI View: The combination of a weak economy and a turbulent political environment will lead to anotherchallenging year for the Lebanese new vehicle sales market in 2016, although consumer demand shouldremain resilient. We expect 3.9% sales growth for the sector as a whole, with passenger car sales set tooutperform commercial vehicle sales.

Key Views

We expect new vehicle sales to grow 22% over 2016-2020, supported by recovering economic growth,rising incomes and favourable demographics.

We expect stronger sales growth from commercial vehicle (27.3%) than passenger car (21.8%).

Passenger car will continue to account for the majority (94%) of total new vehicles sold.

Uncertain domestic and regional security conditions continue to pose a downside risk.

Kia (-17%) and Hyundai (-39%) both saw sharp falls in their Lebanese sales, as Japanese manufacturersbenefited from a weaker yen and the launch of new model ranges.

Korean manufacturers' sales fell (Kia 17% and Hyundai 39%), while Japanese manufacturers grew verywell (Toyota 31%, Mitsubishi 71% and Suzuki 105%).


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