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Latvia Shipping Report Q1 2016

Latvia Shipping Report Q1 2016

BMI View: We expect positive but slow growth across the main Latvian ports in 2016 with the lateststatistics from the port of Riga, the country's largest port, indicating a trend of increased liquid bulktonnage and decreasing general cargo volumes while the largest cargo type, dry bulk, remains at consistentlevels. These trends are projected in our 2015 estimates of modest growth in tonnage throughput and adecrease in container traffic at the port of Riga. BMI's more positive outlook for 2016 is supported by ananticipated recovery in Russian import demand and continued steady trade growth in other main partnerssuch as Lithuania, Estonia and Germany.

Over the medium term (2017-2019) we forecast total trade growth to average 2.5%, stimulating slow butsteady growth in throughput volumes at Latvian ports. Real GDP growth over the period is forecast toaverage 3.0%, unemployment to fall from 9.0% in 2016 to 7.0% by 2019, and the active population toremain above 64%. Even with inflation anticipated to remain at low levels (2.7% in 2019), the country'seconomic performance will not significantly boost consumer demand and imports. Sustained growth indemand for imports in main trading partner countries will, however, drive Latvian export volumes, withexports anticipated to grow slightly more quickly than imports.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Shipping
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Riga Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (Latvia 2012-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (Latvia 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Latvia 2012-2019)
Table: Top Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Market Overview
Latvia Container Shipping Market Overview
Company Profile
Latvian Shipping Company
Shipping - Global Industry View
Bright Spot For Shipping: Low Bunker Prices
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel (IFO180 & MGO) Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Risks To Outlook
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Latvia 1990-2025)

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