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Latvia Freight Transport Report 2016

Latvia Freight Transport Report 2016

BMI View: Latvia's freight industry will grow at a moderate pace over 2016, prompted by stable economic growth and an uptick in household consumption.

However, it is poised to feel the negative effects of the deterioration in trade relations between the EU and the Russian Federation.

While on aggregate sanctions put in place by the West have not significantly affected the EU's growth outlook, they have hit Latvia hard.

Russia is one of Latvia's largest trading partners, accounting for 10% of total exports, and the country also acts as a conduit for trade between the EU and Russia.

The economic outlook for Latvia remains stable over the short term, although weaker demand from Russia is dragging on the industrial sector.

We forecast real GDP growth will increase to 3.0% in 2016 from 2.8% in 2015.

Household confidence has continued to improve, and will likely keep rising over the coming quarters, mirroring positive developments in the labour market and steadily growing wages.

Registered cars also continued to rise, tallying with steady retail sales growth.

Taken together, the outlook for households remains one of gradual but robust improvement as the sector draws to the end of its deleveraging cycle and disposable incomes rise.

Low inflation (headline CPI contracted by 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September 2015) is also helping to bolster household purchasing power, although consumer price growth will begin to pick up at the start of 2016 as base effects from low oil decline.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Latvia 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Latvia 2013-2019)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Latvia 2013-2020)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Latvia 2013-2020)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Latvia 2013-2020)
Company Profile
LDz Cargo
Latvian Shipping Company
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Table: Latvia - Political Overview Table
Long-Term Political Outlook
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Latvia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Latvia 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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