Laos Power Q4 2018
Laos' ambitions to turn itself into the 'battery of Asia' by exporting excess hydro power generation will result in thecountry's power sector expanding rapidly over the coming decade, although the collapse of the part complete Xe Pian Xe Namnoydam in July 2018 has raised questions about the safety of the dam construction drive. We have removed the collapsed facility fromour 10-year forecast scenario, but have not altered our forecasts for other hydro facilities coming on line and therefore foresee totalpower generation rising from a predicted 27.79TWh in 2018 to 46.04TWh in 2027, albeit with risks now tilted to the downside. Whilewe have always been more cautious than the government with regards to the speed and extent of hydro-power development, theincident has injected risks and unpredictability into our forecast trajectory, until the cause is identified and the government hasdecided on a policy response.
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