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Laos Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Laos Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Key View:

Laos' real GDP growth moderated slightly to 6.9% in 2017, from 7.0% in 2016, according to preliminary data from the Lao Statistics Bureau, and we maintain our forecast for real GDP growth to average 6.8% per annum between 2018 and 2020. This will be supported by strong growth in electricity exports and the construction sector.

The collapse of a dam in July has triggered a pause in the approvals of new hydropower projects and an official review of all existing ones in the country. This is likely a strategic move aimed at quelling angst among the population and the international community. However, the government is unlikely to cancel most ongoing projects as it will struggle to find alternative economic growth engines. We expect most development to resume after the disquiet fades. The leadership is likely to tighten media censorship and crack down on public opposition in the process.

Key Risks

Laos' foreign exchange reserves are insufficient; and this, combined with a high external debt, makes the country vulnerable to external shocks.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Moderate But Remain Robust
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Laos Economy To 2027
Benefitting From Regional And Domestic Developments
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Laos To Stay On Track With Hydropower Development
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Laos Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsLong-Term Political Outlook
Growing Dissent Against LPRP Poses Risk Of Upheaval
Global Macro Outlook
Strong Growth, But Greater Headwinds Too
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: LAOS – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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