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Laos Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Laos Country Risk Report Q3 2018

We forecast Laos' real GDP growth to average 6.8% per annum between 2018-2020. While we hold a positive view on the tourism and hydropower sectors, and the government is pushing to improve the business environment, increasingly wide external and fiscal imbalances suggests that the current growth rate will be difficult to sustain.

Corruption in Laos has worsened according to Transparency Inter-national and local officials, even as the media continues to report high-profile anti-corruption cases in the land-locked country. This will continue to pose downside risks to social stability in the country.

We expect Laos' current account deficit to average above 10% of GDP over the coming years, reflecting the high import content of the large-scale Kunming-Vientiane railway and various hydropower dam projects. We see no immediate danger to the country's balance of payments position as external financing is likely to remain strong, but economic distortions and longer-term risks are building up.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risk
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Positive Sectors Outlook But Growth Sustainability An Issue
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Laos Economy To 2027
Benefitting From Regional And Domestic Developments
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Anti-Corruption Efforts Not Yielding Much Results Despite Publicity
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Growing Dissent Against LPRP Poses Risk Of Upheaval
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: LAOS – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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