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Laos Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Laos Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Key View:

We at Fitch Solutions forecast Laos' real GDP growth to slow to 6.6% per annum over the coming decade, versus an average of 7.6% in the last 10 years. Progress on economic diversification has stalled, while high debt and relatively weak fiscal health represent key risks to stability.

Despite high-profile actions and promises, the government still appears to have made little progress in tackling widespread corruption. Further measures are expected, motivated in part by the need to shore up public finances and encourage foreign investment, though it is unclear whether the government will make inroads in weeding out graft.

Key Risks

The vast majority of trade is conducted with China, Vietnam and Thailand, leaving the country exposed to a sharp slowdown or crisis in one or more of these states.

Laos' foreign exchange reserves are insufficient, and this combined with a high external debt, make the country vulnerable to external shocks.Laos Country Risk


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Economic Growth To Be Stuck In 6% Range
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Laotian Economy To 2028
Benefitting From Regional And Domestic Developments
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Impact Of Anti-Corruption Drive Still Limited
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Growing Dissent Against LPRP Poses Risk Of Upheaval
Laos Country Risk Q2 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsGlobal Macro Outlook
Damage Control: Looser Policy Shift Ahead
TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: LAOS – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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