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Laos Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Laos Country Risk Report Q1 2019

We have lowered our real GDP growth forecast for Laos to 6 5% in 2018 and 6 6% in 2019, both from 6 8% previously, to reflect the adverse weather conditions which are affecting output in the mining and agricultural industries, as well as slowing economic growth in Thailand and China, its main trading partners

Laos will likely face increased scrutiny over the coming quarters by the pro-democratic Western community after a review by the UNHCR highlighted the coun-try's dismal human rights record However, we believe that this will have limited impact on political liberalisation and legal reforms in the country given that Laos remains dependent on its immediate neighbours for economic and political support

Key Risks

Laos' foreign exchange reserves are insufficient and this combined with a high external debt make the country vulnerable to external shocks Laos Country Risk Q1 2019


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Poor Weather Conditions In Laos Weighing On Growth Outlook
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Laotian Economy To 2027
Benefitting From Regional And Domestic Developments
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Political Reforms To Remain Slow Despite Increased International Scrutiny
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Laos Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsLong-Term Political Outlook
Growing Dissent Against LPRP Poses Risk Of Upheaval
Global Macro Outlook
Continued Growth Divergence And Policy Risks Ahead
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: LAOS – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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