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Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Kuwait is likely to fall short of ambitious production targets for both oil and gas without greater involvement of international oil companies, a move which remains controversial among some key constituencies. Coordinated action by OPEC and possibly non-OPEC producers could see output capped or reduced, but the prospects of such an agreement remain uncertain given competing economic and political agendas. Kuwait is on track to benefit from major downstream investment, including a new refinery and an onshore LNG facility by the end of the decade.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts:

Kuwait remains committed to ambitious production targets for both oil and gas. In order to address an increasing gap between supply and demand, Kuwait hopes to increase domestic output to more than 20bcm by 2020. Officials have also said they plan to raise oil production capacity to 4mn b/d by 2020 from around 3.2mn b/d currently. However, we forecast production of oil and gas to rise more slowly than officials anticipate, given Kuwait has long struggled to attract sufficient technical expertise from international oil companies (IOCs) due to opposition from domestic political interests.

In January, Kuwait announced support for a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to freeze output at current levels. However, progress towards coordinated energy policy will continue to be undermined by economic and political rivalries among key exporters. While any agreement could present a source of downside risk to Kuwaiti oil production, it remains unclear whether such a deal will be implemented.

Kuwait said in February that it would raise output by 150,000b/d in Q316 as part of a push to increase its role in meeting export demand in Europe. Kuwait currently exports 500,000b/d to Europe on both spot and long-term contracts, but the country facing increasing competition there, and in Asia, from Iran following the lifting of sanctions in January.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Kuwait 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Unconventional Upside
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Kuwait 2014-2019)
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Kuwait 2020-2025)
Upstream Projects
Table: Kuwait - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Kuwait 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Kuwait 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Table: Gas Production (Kuwait 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Kuwait 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kuwait 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kuwait 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kuwait 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kuwait 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Kuwait 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Kuwait 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kuwait 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kuwait 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kuwait 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kuwait 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Kuwait LNG Infrastructure
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kuwait 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kuwait 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Kuwait - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index
Downstream Index
Market Overview
Kuwait Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Terms
Table: Kuwait - Upstream Tax Regime
Table: Kuwait - Contracts & Licensing Regime
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Oil Refineries In Kuwait
Oil Storage Facilities
Table: Kuwait - Oil Terminals & POrts
LNG Terminals
Table: Kuwait - Existing and Planned LNG Infrastructure
Gas Storage Terminals
Table: Kuwait - Gas Storage Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Table: Kuwait - Gas Pipelines
Crude Oil Pipelines
Table: Kuwait - Crude Oil Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Kuwaiti Oil & Gas Sector Players
Company Profile
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC)
Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC)
Chevron
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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