Kuwait Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q2 2016
BMI View: We are looking for positive growth across the Kuwaiti freight transport sector in 2016 as thesmall Gulf country looks to recover from a significant fall in trade, driven by the global collapse of oilprices in 2014. The overall macroeconomic outlook remains bleak, but high levels of capital and foreignreserves, coupled with a wealthy population means that spending on both capital goods -(also driving bulkand project volumes) and consumer goods should continue supporting the freight transport sector ingeneral. The two largest national ports will see their throughput tonnage increase in 2016 as Kuwaitremains heavily reliant on manufactured goods and agricultural imports, whilst being one of the largest oilexporters of the world.
Key Updates And Forecasts
Economic recovery prospects will begin modestly in 2016 after the collapse in the price of oil severelydeteriorated the macroeconomic fundamentals of the country in 2014 and 2015.
We are expecting a real GDP growth rate of 1.2% in 2016, which will be supported by a real finalconsumption growth rate of 2%.
We forecast total road freight volumes will rise by 2.3% in 2016 to reach 13.4mn tonnes. Growth will be2.46% in 2017.
We forecast total air freight volumes handled at Kuwait International Airport will rise by 2.6% in 2016 toreach 194,380 tonnes. Growth will be 2.65% in 2017.
We forecast total trade value to rise by 3.8% in nominal terms, to reach USD130.2bn in 2016. Growthwill be 3.9% in 2017.
The top trade partners will be China, the US, Japan, India and Saudi Arabia.
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