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Kuwait Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Kuwait Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Rising oil prices will boost Kuwait's public spending over the coming quarters, which will support domestic demand. Furthermore, the increasing possibility that OPEC will unwind output restraints on Kuwait's oil sector presents upside risks to growth.

A rapid recovery in oil prices will lift Kuwait's current account surplus back into the double digits relative to GDP in 2018. Thereafter, plateauing oil prices, robust import demand and ongoing remittance outflows will lead to a gentle decline in the surplus over subsequent years.

Kuwait's hiking cycle will lag the US Federal Reserve in 2018, as the authorities seek to stimulate credit growth. In 2019, our core view is for the Central Bank of Kuwait to resume following the actions of the Fed, in an improving macroeconomic context.

Corruption and 'Kuwaiticisation' will remain the key contentious issues in Kuwait's political environment over the coming months and quarters. Although they will not threaten stability, these issues will continue to constrain policy implementation, and will likely lead to the dissolution of parliament and the holding of new elections before the current parliament's term ends in 2020.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Kuwait Growth Outlook Brightening
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Kuwait Current Account Surplus To Peak In 2018
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy
Dovish Kuwaiti Monetary Policy In 2018, Reversion To Fed-Following In 2019
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Kuwaiti Economy To 2027
Energy Sector Will Remain Major Growth Driver
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Kuwait Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Corruption And 'Kuwaiticisation' Will Constrain Policymaking
Long-Term Political Outlook
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: KUWAIT – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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