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Kuwait Country Risk Report 20 2018

Kuwait Country Risk Report 20 2018

Reduced fiscal pressures will give the Kuwaiti cabinet breathing room in its fiscal austerity attempts, helping to reduce a major source of tension with the opposition members of the national assembly.

However, tensions will not disappear completely and therefore risks of cabinet resignations and snap elections will remain elevated, boding ill for policy formation and continuity.

Kuwaiti real GDP growth will return to positive territory in 2018, but will remain relatively subdued due to flat oil production. Oil output will grow once again from 2019 and this, in tandem with strong infrastructure investment, will see growth climb above 3.0% in the medium term.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Gather Momentum After Turning Positive In 2018
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2015
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2015
Monetary Policy
Inflation: Subdued In 2018 Before Rising In 2019
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Limited Fiscal Sustainability Risks Despite Large Deficits
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Kuwaiti Economy To 2027
High Wealth, Yet Challenges To Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Fiscal Breathing Room Will Not Eliminate Cabinet/MP Tensions
Long-Term Political Outlook
Stability, But At A Cost To State Finances
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: KUWAIT – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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