The Kosovan telecommunications market offers limited opportunities for prospective andexisting investors alike. The wireline voice sector is small and in decline, though showing growth in thebusiness segment. Fixed broadband services are increasing and two alternative players lead that market;privatisation of the incumbent would boost fixed sector investment. The mobile market is a little morecompetitive but with one MVNO having expired investors are advised to look elsewhere for growthopportunities. 3G/4G expansion provides the only real growth momentum with operators seeking to growmobile data usage to offset declines from traditional voice services.
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3G/4G adoption has progressed much faster than expected since 2015. We now forecast 3G/4G toaccount for all mobile subscriptions by end-2021. Low disposable incomes count against equally rapidgrowth in premium service revenues, however, and though we believe ARPUs stabilised in 2016, anyshort-term ARPU growth will be disappointing. .
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