Kenya Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Kenya Country Risk Report Q1 2020

At Fitch Solutions, we expect growth in Kenya to moderate from five- and 10-year averages in 2019, before accelerating somewhat in 2020. Weakness in the agricultural sector caused by delayed rains will constrain growth in 2019, while the retail sector will also face challenges as a result of this. In contrast, the construction sector will remain strong, supported by public investment and a rebound in lending owing to the likely removal or modification of the rate-capping law.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Agricultural Sector Underperformance Will Constrain Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Current Account Deficit To Narrow Over 2019-2020, Widen In 2021
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS, 2018
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS, 2018
Monetary Policy
Central Bank Of Kenya To Implement Moderate Rate Cut
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
Currency Forecast
KES: Gradual Depreciation Ahead For The Shilling
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Kenyan Economy To 2028
Economy Stable But Far From Secure
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Growing Obstacles To Policy Formation
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Social Fragmentation And Weak Regional Profile Will Threaten Stability
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: KENYA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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