Market Research Logo

Kenya Country Risk Report 20 2018

Kenya Country Risk Report 20 2018

The pace of expansion in the Kenyan economy is set to improve in the coming quarters driven by greater political stability and a likely improvement in credit growth. However, fiscal consolidation will limit opportunities for government-led growth.

Although the agreement of a political truce between President Uhuru Kenyatta and the leader of the opposition will offer some short-term tailwinds to the Kenya's political environment, underlying tensions will remain. Dissatisfaction among opposition supporters will likely fester owing to violence in the wake of the general election, and ethnic tensions will continue to pose structural threats to stability.

Kenya's budget deficit will narrow in the coming quarters as the government implements consolidation in the face of rising debt servicing costs rise and seeks to improve relations with the IMF.

While this help to stabilise the public debt burden, the government's fiscal position will continue to face a number of key risks.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Greater Political Stability Will See Growth Accelerate
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS 2016
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS 2016
Monetary Policy
Higher Inflation Will Limit Scope For Easing
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Spending Cuts Ahead But Debt Risks Remain
Structural Fiscal Position
Currency Forecast
KES: Short-Term Range-Trading, Long-Term Weakness
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Kenyan Economy To 2027
Economy Stable But Far From Secure
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Political Truce Will Not Fix Structural Obstacles
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Social Fragmentation And Weak Regional Profile Will Threaten Stability
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: KENYA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report