Kenya Agribusiness Q4 2018
Kenya will continue to underperform its regional peers with regard to the development of its agricultural sector withanother difficult year forecast for 2018, following droughts a year earlier in 2017. Starting in 2019, however, the outlook for theagribusiness market in the country looks set to start improving with a rebound in output across nearly all of the crops we track, withth exception of wheat. Despite COMESA granting another extension to the sugar import safeguard out to 2021, which will provide ashort-term boost, we expect the country's sugar sector to remain regionally inefficient and to post very limited growth over thecoming years. However, we forecast steady coffee production growth - starting in 2019 - due to improvements in husbandrytechniques. Food price inflation will continue to decline in Kenya as regional corn production shows signs of a rebound in 2018/19.Despite this, we now see wheat outperforming the Kenyan agribusiness grains complex in terms of both output and demand acrossour five-year forecast period through to 2021/22.
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