BMI View: Kenya will continue to underperform its regional peers with regard to the development of itsagricultural sector. Despite COMESA granting another extension to the sugar import safeguard, which willprovide a short-term boost, we expect the country's sugar sector to remain regionally inefficient and to postvery limited growth over the coming years. However, we forecast steady coffee production growth due toimprovements in husbandry techniques. Having largely avoided the El Niño-related droughts that affectedgrain production in southern Africa, Kenya is now facing its own considerable drought problems, and willsee food security deteriorate, especially in rural areas.
Corn production growth 2016/17 to 2020/21: 34% to 3.9mn tonnes. The potential wide-scaleintroduction of genetically modified seeds presents upside risks to this view. However, much of thisgrowth is base effects related to the 2016/17 droughts as well as historical data revisions.