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Kenya Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Kenya Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Kenya will continue to underperform its regional peers with regard to the development of itsagricultural sector. Despite COMESA granting a one-year extension to the sugar import safeguard, whichwill provide a short-term boost, we expect the country's sugar sector to remain regionally inefficient andtherefore to post very limited growth over the coming years. However, we continue to forecast steady coffeeproduction growth due to relatively high domestic prices and improvement in husbandry techniques. Kenyawill largely bypass the El Niño-related droughts currently affecting SSA, but the country will face moreexpensive corn imports due to higher regional corn prices.

Key Forecasts

Corn production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 16.5% to 3.1mn tonnes. Corn production growth will befairly limited as subdued prices relative to previous years will limit plantings, while yield growth will bepoor. Most of the gains will be due to base effects.

Wheat consumption growth 2016 to 2020: 15.5% to 2.1mn tonnes. Kenyans already have a high rateof wheat consumption by regional standards. Improvements in availability and growth in population andincomes will drive consumption.

Coffee production growth 2015/16 to 2019/20: 8.9% to 980,000 60kg bags. Growth will be driven byincreased financial support from the government in the form of funds and debt relief. In addition, newcoffee varieties are likely to help boost yields.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Coffee Outlook
Table: Kenya - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Kenya 2012-2020)
Grains Outlook
Table: Kenya - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Kenya, 2012-2020)
Sugar Outlook
Table: Kenya - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Kenya 2011-2019)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Outlook
Table: Farm Size By Region
Africa Machinery Outlook
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2019)
Table: Meat Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecast (Kenya 2014-2019)
Table: Dairy Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2019)
Regional Overview
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
Competitive Landscape
Table: Competitive Landscape
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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