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Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for Kazakhstan's oil production, thanks to huge undergroundpotential and the delayed Kashagan field expected to come online in 2017, with the Tengiz project forecastto start production in 2021. Our forecasts for gas and refined products consumption have been reviseddown for 2016 as economic headwinds impact consumer spending.

Key developments in Kazakhstan's oil & gas industry:

The Kazakh Energy Ministry stated that it had plans to carry out additional evaluation work on Aktotyand Kairan fields, with further exploration work also expected to be done on the Kurmangazy field in2016.

We expect oil production to be 1.67mn b/d in 2016, with steady increases forecast until 2022. The risksfor oil production lie to the upside, with plenty of room for expansion on a number of Kazakhstan'shydrocarbon rich fields.

We have slightly downgraded gas consumption in 2016 on account of strong economic headwinds. In thelonger term, we expect a strong growth trajectory.

Kazakhstan's energy ministry expects Russia to grant exploration rights for the central field of theRussian sector of the Caspian Sea. The original exploration license expired in 2009 and the Russiangovernment at the time did not allow the grant to be renewed.

Kazakhstan's economy will suffer in the low oil price environment, with GDP per capita expected to fallfrom USD10,881 in 2015 to USD8,299 in 2016. On the back of a weak macro backdrop we havedowngraded Kazakhstan's refined products consumption for 2016 from 284,300b/d to 267,750b/d.

We note that overall gas consumption will remain constrained by infrastructure limitations. We highlightdownside risk to consumption should government plans for pipeline expansions to connect the producingnorthwest to other areas of the country not follow through: the size of the country and the relativelyunpopulated areas of several regions make these projects challenging economically.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2020)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Kazakhstan Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Kazakhstan - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream - Rewards
Upstream - Risks
Downstream - Rewards
Downstream - Risks
Market Overview
Kazakhstan Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
Table: Kazakhstan Fiscal Regime
Licensing Regime
Table: Kazakhstan Licensing Regime
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Major Refineries In Kazakhstan
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Kazakhstan Oil And Gas Sector
Company Profile
Chevron
CNPC
Eni Kazakhstan
ExxonMobil Kazakhstan
KMG
Lukoil Kazakhstan
Shell Kazakhstan
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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