Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI View: The interest of foreign investors in the Kazakhstan livestock industry supports our view that thisis the sub-sector with most growth potential. Poultry production in particular is expected to perform wellover the next five years. The development of the livestock industry ties into another key trend we expect totake hold over our forecast period: the diversification of arable production away from the bedrockcommodity, wheat. Feed grains will assume greater importance, particularly corn, in the grains complex.
The dairy industry is growing from a weaker base than that enjoyed by meat producers, so we expect statefundedschemes to play a more significant role in its medium-term development and modernisation.
Key BMI Forecasts
Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 12.7% to 14.6mn tonnes. Much of this growth will be due tobase effects, but improving yields will also support modest annual increases in output. This is despitedeclining acreage due to subsidies incentivising sowings of other field crops.
Milk consumption growth to 2020: 17.0% to 5.3mn tonnes. Demand will be held back in the shortterm by the challenging macroeconomic situation, but we expect strong growth to return in the later yearsof our forecast period.
2016 real GDP growth: 1.0%, down from 1.3% in 2015.
2016 average consumer price inflation: 12.5% y-o-y, up from 7.0% y-o-y in 2015.
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