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Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Autos Report Q4 2015

Jordan, Lebanon & Syria Autos Report Q4 2015

BMI retains a negative near-term view on the new vehicle sales outlook for Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.

This reflects the deteriorating regional economic and political situation. We are now targeting falls in autosales for all three countries over 2015.

Starting with Jordan, BMI retains a downbeat stance towards new vehicle sales this quarter, as we feel thatthe growing threat to the Kingdom's borders from ongoing attacks from Islamic State (IS) insurgents morethan outweighs what is a reasonably propitious domestic macroeconomic backdrop.

According to an April 2015 report by the Associated Press (AP), ongoing border violence has led to theclosure of the sole Syria-Jordan trade crossing, effectively paralysing its overland trade routes. The reportalso stated that Jordanian exports were already down by 17% y-o-y over the first two months of 2015,before the security situation worsened. With specific regard to the auto sector, the AP report quoted a traderwho said that he had stopped selling cars to Iraq, following the imposition of IS 'tariffs', whereby IS fightersarbitrarily charge USD2,000 for each imported car passing through an IS-manned checkpoint.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Industry Forecast - Jordan
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Jordan 2013-2019)
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Jordan 2013-2019)
Trade
Passenger Cars
Luxury Cars
Alternative Fuels
Industry Forecast - Lebanon
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2013-2019)
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2013-2019)
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Lebanon 2013-2019)
Passenger Cars
Table: Lebanon - Top Five Best-Selling Brands, 2014
Industry Forecast - Syria
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Syria 2013-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Expenditure Breakdown
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Jordan 2012-2019)
Economic Analysis
Economic Analysis
Table: FUEL AND FOOD PRICES AFTER SUBSIDY CUTS
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
MENA - Risk/Reward Index
Iran The Epitome Of 'High Risk, High Reward'
GCC Leads On Stability
Conflict Risks Are Pertinent
Company Profile
Company Monitor
Hyundai-Kia
Renault
Regional Overview
Industry Trend Analysis
Table: MENA Production Investments
GCC Production Spreads
Changes In North Africa
Global Industry Overview
1. Currency Weakness Hurting African Growth
2. Increasing Local Content In Trouble Spots
3. SUVs Rolling On
4. Tech/Autos Lines Are Blurring
Demographic Forecast
Jordan Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Jordan 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Jordan 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Jordan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Jordan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Jordan 1990-2025)
Lebanon Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Lebanon 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Lebanon 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Lebanon 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Lebanon 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Lebanon 1990-2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Syria 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Syria 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Syria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Syria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Syria 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecasts
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators

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