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Japan Freight Transport Report Q3 2015


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political SWOT
Economic SWOT
Operational Risk SWOT
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Japan 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Japan 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Japan 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Japan 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Japan 2012-2019)
Company Profile
All Nippon Airways Cargo (ANA Cargo)
Japan Airlines Corporation Cargo (JAL Cargo)
Yusen Logistics
Political Outlook
Foreign Policy
Long-Term Political Outlook
Oil Price Outlook
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

BMI View: We expect to see a relatively mixed bag in terms of annual growth across the freight modes inJapan in 2015. Leading the way in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms will be rail freight (3.25%) ahead of roadand air (0.49% and 1.20% respectively). With growth across the Japanese freight modes set to be relativelymuted in 2015, echoing the malaise in the wider economy, we do caution that infrastructure is very welldeveloped in Japan and growth across the modes is pretty much at saturation.

The bulk of the decline in Japan's savings rate will be reflected in a steady decline in net exports, as we areforecasting exports to grow at a much slower pace than imports over the coming years. The improvingperformance of Japanese net exports has played a part in helping the wider economy emerge from recession,providing a boost to the country's freight industry over the short term. However, that said, we do not expectthe gains in net exports attributable to the weak yen to spill over into 2015 to a large extent, as the realeffective gains in the yen over the past few months, together with the collapse in oil prices, should drive upimports relative to exports. In 2015, we have pencilled in y-o-y import gains of 4.15%, ahead of exports at3.50%.


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