BMI View: We expect to see a relatively mixed bag in terms of annual growth across the freight modes inJapan in 2015. Leading the way in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms will be rail freight (3.25%) ahead of roadand air (0.49% and 1.20% respectively). With growth across the Japanese freight modes set to be relativelymuted in 2015, echoing the malaise in the wider economy, we do caution that infrastructure is very welldeveloped in Japan and growth across the modes is pretty much at saturation.
The bulk of the decline in Japan's savings rate will be reflected in a steady decline in net exports, as we areforecasting exports to grow at a much slower pace than imports over the coming years. The improvingperformance of Japanese net exports has played a part in helping the wider economy emerge from recession,providing a boost to the country's freight industry over the short term. However, that said, we do not expectthe gains in net exports attributable to the weak yen to spill over into 2015 to a large extent, as the realeffective gains in the yen over the past few months, together with the collapse in oil prices, should drive upimports relative to exports. In 2015, we have pencilled in y-o-y import gains of 4.15%, ahead of exports at3.50%.
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