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Japan Freight Transport Report Q1 2015


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Japan Freight Transport Report Q1 2015

Cargo volumes will grow in the low single percentage digits across Japan's main freight transport modes in2015. Our forecast is based on a fairly sombre outlook for the wider economy - GDP growth of less than 1%- and higher, but still slowing foreign trade expansion (growth of 4.1%, down from an estimated 4.7% in2014). By transport modes, rail freight will show the greatest dynamism.

BMI is bearish on Japan's economic prospects in 2015, with aggressively below-consensus projections forthe economy. While some predict 3.0% GDP growth our forecast is for expansion of only 0.8%, down on anestimated 0.9% in 2014. We attribute this disappointing outlook to the steep fall of the yen versus thecurrencies of Japan's main trading partners and the sales tax hike in April 2014. GDP fell quarter-on-quarterin Q214 and Q314, pushing the economy into technical recession. We continue to believe the government'squantitative easing (QE) efforts are counterproductive, boosting inflation but not lifting purchasing powerby consumers. Similarly, a weaker yen is good for exporters but not for domestic purchasing power. Thekey problem is that real wages continue to decline.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Industry Forecast
Road Dominates Domestic Market
Table: Road Freight (Japan 2011-2018)
Rail
Table: Rail Freight (Japan 2011-2018)
Air
Table: Air Freight (Japan 2011-2018)
Maritime
Table: Maritime Freight (Japan 2011-2018)
Trade
Table: Trade Overview (Japan 2011-2018)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Japan 2011-2018)
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2012
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Intermodal
Air Freight
Maritime Freight
Company Profile
All Nippon Airways Cargo (ANA Cargo)
Japan Airlines Corporation Cargo (JAL Cargo)
Yusen Logistics
Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK Line) Tankers
NYK (Dry Bulk)
Mitsui OSK Lines
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd (K Line)
NYK Container Line
Political Outlook
Foreign Policy
Recent Surveys Show Scale Of Popular Resentment
Economic Linkages Also Fraying
Abe Cabinet Reshuffle Offers Hope Of Improving Ties
Abe Pushing For Meeting With Chinese Leaders
Business Delegation Could Pave The Way
Risks To Outlook
Long-Term Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Japan 2009-2018)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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