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Japan Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Japan Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's prospects for extending his rule beyond September 2018 are improving, as his approval ratings recover and potential rivals trail him in polls. However, even if Abe secures a third three-year term as head of the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), he faces significant challenges in 2019 in the form of regional and Upper House elections, and a possible attempt to amend the constitution by referendum.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Revising Down Japan's 2018 Growth Forecasts Amid Weak Q118 Print And Headwinds
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Japanese Exporters In The Firing Line
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORTS
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Japan Has Limited Monetary Tools To Fight Next Downturn
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Japan Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsCurrency Forecast
Unrelenting QQE To Weaken Japanese Yen Over Medium Term
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Japanese Economy To 2027
Abenomics Hangover Only Just Beginning
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Improved Prospects For Abe's Extended Rule, But Risks Mounting In 2019
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
TABLE: POTENTIAL CANDIDATES FOR LDP LEADERSHIP ELECTION
Long-Term Political Outlook
Abe And LDP Face Colossal Long-Term Challenges
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EMs Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: JAPAN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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