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Japan Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Japan Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe re-election victory as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party during September 20 bodes well for Japan's policy continuity and provide his government time to implement structural reforms However, he still faces significant challenges in 2019 in the form of Upper House elections, and a possible attempt to amend the constitution by referendum


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Japan's Growth Prospects Weakening Despite Q218 Growth Rebound
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Japan's Merchandise Trade Decline To Weigh On External Position
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
Monetary Policy
End Of Japan's Unorthodox Monetary Policy Later Rather Than Sooner
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
Japanese Yen To Remain Range-Bound Into 2019
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
Japan Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Japanese Economy To 2027
Abenomics Hangover Only Just Beginning
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Japan PM Abe Faces Growing Dilemma Over Constitutional Vs Economic Reforms In 2018-2021
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Abe And LDP Face Colossal Long-Term Challenges
Operational Risk
Developed States
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK INDEX
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK INDEX
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK INDEX
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK INDEX
Global Macro Outlook
Contagion Risks Limited To EMs For Now
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
Index Tables
TABLE: JAPAN – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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