Japan Consumer Electronics Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Japan's consumer electronics market is one of the most advanced in the Asia Pacific and ischaracterised by high penetration of devices. The flat-panel TV boom has passed while the computer marketis also saturated, and with an aging population and uncertain economic outlook this means growthpotential over the medium term is limited. We forecast spending will decrease at a CAGR of -0.6% in USDterms over 2016-2020, and be flat in local currency terms. This is nonetheless an improvement over2010-2015 when negative device trends (LED/LCD TV sets, desktops, notebooks and digital cameras) weremore pronounced, and there is some upside should wearable devices gain mass market traction over themedium term.
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: USD42.7bn in 2016 to USD40.9bn in 2020, a compound annual growthrate (CAGR) of -1.1%. Saturation, an aging population and longer replacement rates will combine tokeep the hardware segment in negative territory over the medium term.
AV And Gaming Sales: USD10.5bn in 2016 to USD10.1bn in 2020, a CAGR of -1.4%. After sharpdeclines in market value over 2010-2015 due to a collapse in LED/LCD TV set volumes then digitalcamera volumes, we envisage stronger performance from 2016, but the market will remain in negativeterritory.
Mobile Handset Sales: USD17.7bn in 2016 to USD18.4bn in 2020, a CAGR of 1.0%. Some capacity forsmartphone growth remains, while large premium market in Japan will mean it continues to be one of themost lucrative markets in the Asia Pacific over 2016-2020.
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