Japan Agribusiness Report Q3 2015

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

BMI View: The government's plans to diminish the influence of the once-powerful Central UnionAgricultural Cooperative (JA-Zenchu) are a strong indication to us that much-needed structural reform ofthe agriculture industry is underway. Indeed, by 2019, the JA Zenchu is supposed to become a generalincorporated association with co-ops having the option of engaging independent auditors instead ofworking with those associated to the JA Zenchu. By reducing the power of the Union, the government issending out a clear sign that it is serious about the reforms, as further reflected in the increased opennesstowards a compromise for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Other structural issues that should be addressedare the ageing farmer population (the average age of a Japanese farmer is close to 70) coupled with highlyinefficient farming methods - usually constrained by the small plots of family-run farms. It is no wonder whyagricultural employment is shrinking so rapidly. According to official figures, people engaged in farming inJapan fell by 22.3% from 2005 to 2010 to reach 747,000. The Japanese agriculture industry faces a bleakfuture if it does not reinvent itself.

Key Forecasts

Rice production growth to 2018/2019: 5.5% to 8.9mn tonnes. With the latest policy to do away withthe four decade-long gentan policy, which restricts output of the grain to prevent overproduction, webelieve this will herald a new season for the backward and ageing industry, as consolidation will begin totake place.

Beef production growth to 2018/19: 3.0% to 517,000 tonnes. Livestock production is expected to bestable on the back of changes in the animal feed compensation program for farmers, as well as mutedconsumption growth.

BMI Industry View
Operational Risk SWOT
Industry Forecast
Rice Outlook
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Japan 2013-2019)
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
Grains Outlook
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
Livestock Outlook
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
Soybean Outlook
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (Japan 2009-2014)
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Monthly Grains Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
Asia Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2012-2019)
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2012-2019)
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Japan 2014-2019)
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2014-2019)
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2014-2019)
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Japan 2014-2019)
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Japan 2014-2019)
Regional Overview
Competitive Landscape
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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