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Jamaica Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Jamaica Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Economic activity will increase modestly over the coming quarters, driven primarily by the tourism industry and tailwinds from a resurgent mining sector. Eco-nomic reforms and a gradual easing of austerity measures will further buoy growth over the long term.

Broad political support and a legislative majority will allow Prime Minister Andrew Holness's government to pursue additional IMF-backed reforms. Central bank reform will likely pass in H218, leading to a more autonomous Bank of Jamaica.

The government will also focus on combating rising crime rates, which pose a threat to social and economic stability, and bolstering the agricultural sector.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Quarterly Outlook: Jamaican Economy Set For Modest Growth Acceleration
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Service Exports To Support Jamaican Current Account
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2015
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Jamaican Economy To 2027
Government Reforms To Support Stronger Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: SIMPLIFICATION A MAJOR THEME OF TAX OVERHAUL
Jamaica Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Bank Of Jamaica Focus Of Reform Agenda In H218
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Broad Consensus Will Cement Reforms
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: JAMAICA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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