Jamaica Country Risk Report Q3 2018
Real GDP growth in Jamaica will accelerate in 2018, driven by a strong tourism industry and a recovery in the primary sector. Economic reforms and a gradual easing of austerity measures will further buoy growth over the long term.
The JLP government will move ahead with IMF-sponsored reforms in 2018 aimed at boosting stability and economic growth. Central bank reform and reductions in public sector wages will likely move forward this year.
The government will also focus on combating rising crime rates, which pose a threat to social and economic stability, and bolstering the agricultural sector.
Jamaica's fiscal position will continue to improve over the coming years, as revenue growth will be supported by an improving economy and tax reforms. Fiscal surpluses will allow for a gradual reduction in the country's elevated debt levels.
External account stability is unlikely to be challenged by a wider cur-rent account deficit in the coming quarters. Improved reserves, IMF backing and capital inflows will be sufficient to ensure the stability of the country's external accounts.
The Jamaican dollar will depreciate modestly in the coming months, as accelerating inflation and a widening current account place down-ward pressure on the unit. That said, an improved external picture will see the pace of depreciation slow compared to the past decade.
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