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Jamaica Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Jamaica Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Real GDP growth in Jamaica will accelerate in 2018, driven by a strong tourism industry and a recovery in the primary sector. Economic reforms and a gradual easing of austerity measures will further buoy growth over the long term.

The JLP government will move ahead with IMF-sponsored reforms in 2018 aimed at boosting stability and economic growth. Central bank reform and reductions in public sector wages will likely move forward this year.

The government will also focus on combating rising crime rates, which pose a threat to social and economic stability, and bolstering the agricultural sector.

Jamaica's fiscal position will continue to improve over the coming years, as revenue growth will be supported by an improving economy and tax reforms. Fiscal surpluses will allow for a gradual reduction in the country's elevated debt levels.

External account stability is unlikely to be challenged by a wider cur-rent account deficit in the coming quarters. Improved reserves, IMF backing and capital inflows will be sufficient to ensure the stability of the country's external accounts.

The Jamaican dollar will depreciate modestly in the coming months, as accelerating inflation and a widening current account place down-ward pressure on the unit. That said, an improved external picture will see the pace of depreciation slow compared to the past decade.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Primary Sectors To Support Growth Acceleration
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Fuel Imports To Keep Current Account Deficit Wide
Outlook On External Position
External Position Improving, But Remains Vulnerable
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2015
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2015
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Consolidation Supported By Revenue Growth
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Jamaican Economy To 2027
Government Reforms To Support Stronger Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: SIMPLIFICATION A MAJOR THEME OF TAX OVERHAUL
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Reform Agenda To Target Central Bank And Public Wages
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Social Challenges To Present Political Risks
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Signs Of Weakness, But Global Expansion Broadening
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: JAMAICA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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