Jamaica Country Risk Report Q2 2020


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Jamaica Country Risk Report Q2 2020

Real GDP growth in Jamaica will continue to decelerate over the coming quarters as sluggish activity in the mining, construction and agricultural sectors will outweigh steady growth in private consumption.

We have revised our 2019 real GDP forecast from 2.1% to 1.6% and our 2020 forecast from 1.8% to 1.4%.

Low unemployment and infighting among the opposition People's National Party have the increased possibility that Prime Minister Andrew Holness will call an election in H120.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Austerity, External Environment Will Weigh On Growth In Jamaica
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Weak Aluminium Market To Widen Jamaican Current Account Deficit
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2018
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2018
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Jamaica To Maintain Fiscal Surpluses After IMF Programme
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN AREAS OF REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Jamaica Country Risk Q2 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
The Jamaican Economy To 2029
Government Reforms To Support Stronger Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Possible Snap Election In Jamaica Will Elevate Political Uncertainty
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Broad Consensus Will Cement Reforms
Global Macro Outlook
Economic Stabilisation Continues And Inflation Picking Up Slowly
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: JAMAICA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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