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Jamaica Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Jamaica Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Economic growth in Jamaica will accelerate in the coming quarters as economic reforms pay dividends and accommodative monetary policy supports credit growth.

The mining sector will be a key engine of growth as alumina and bauxite facilities ramp up production, .supporting our forecast for real GDP growth to remain solid at 2.1% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020, from 1.9% in 2018.

Amid an improved business environment, Fitch Solutions forecasts real GDP growth to average 2.0% from 2019-2028, compared to 0.1% over the previous decade.

Broad political consensus on IMF-backed reforms and a congressional majority will support policy continuity under Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Strong Consumption Will Underpin Jamaica's Steady Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2018
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy
Subdued Inflation Will Prompt Bank Of Jamaica To Hold Rates Steady
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Jamaican Economy To 2028
Government Reforms To Support Stronger Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: SIMPLIFICATION A MAJOR THEME OF TAX OVERHAUL
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Political Support For Economic Orthodoxy To Continue In Jamaica
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Broad Consensus Will Cement Reforms
Global Macro Outlook
Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: JAMAICA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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