Italy Tourism Report Q4 2015
BMI View: We expect the weaker euro to encourage higher numbers of domestic tourists as well as thosefrom further afield to travel to Italy in 2015 and into 2016, with visitors looking to take advantage of theexchange rate. Although arrivals will continue to rise, we hold a less positive medium-term view of thesector, as tourism receipts will contract slightly. In addition, Italy's tourism sector is saturated and offersonly minimal room for further growth, favouring existing players rather than new entrants. The emergenceof new source markets in Asia, and the expansion of the luxury and holiday rental accommodationsegments, will be key growth areas.
Key Updates And Forecasts
We forecast inbound arrivals to increase from 83.8mn in 2015 to 92.5mn in 2019, with growth to remainstrong in the short term as tourists from eurozone countries and those outside the currency bloc seek totake advantage of the weak euro. However, we expect weakening growth in inbound arrivals from 2017onwards as the surge in arrivals over 2015 and 2016 due to the weaker euro wanes. Previous growthdrivers (namely economic improvement in key source markets and successful marketing strategies inAsian Pacific and the Middle East and North Africa) will resume their prominence.
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